China’s GDP Projected to Grow 8.4 Percent in 2013

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Jan. 31 – The Chinese Academy of Sciences released the China Economic Forecast 2013 on January 26, which provides that China’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 8.4 percent in 2013, up 0.6 percentage points from 2012.

According to the report, China’s economy will keep growing steadily in 2013 despite the economic challenges at home and abroad. Specifically, the country’s economic growth will present an N-shaped trajectory, climbing in the first half, easing in the middle of the year, and going up again in the fourth quarter. GDP growth in the first half of 2013 is likely to be 8.3 percent and for the second half, it will rise slightly to 8.5 percent, according to the China Economic Forecast 2013.

Moreover, consumption, investment, and net exports will contribute 4.5 percentage points, 4.2 percentage points, and -0.3 percentage points, respectively, to GDP growth, while the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in the country are expected to increase by a respective 4.7 percent, 8.9 percent and 8.8 percent.

Chen Xikang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said if the current policies remain unchanged in 2013, the country’s CPI is likely to rise by 3.5 percent for the whole year.

In terms of the country’s foreign trade, it is expected to grow slightly in 2013, and the growth rate will be higher than that in 2012. The import and export growth rate will be about 8.5 percent for the whole year, with the export growth rate and import growth rate standing at 8.3 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively.

In 2012, China’s GDP grew by 7.8 percent year-on-year, the lowest in 13 years. For the coming 10 years, the potential growth rate of the country’s GDP will fall between 7 percent to 8.5 percent, according to the forecast.

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