Belt And Road Weekly Investor Intelligence #115   

Tuesday, January 10, 2023           

Compiled by Chris Devonshire-Ellis       

What doesn’t yet seem to have sunk in amongst policy-makers in the west is the extent of the increasing trend of multi-lateral trade ties between Russia, China, and India. That is creating additional ripples with China also looking a cementing trade and energy ties in Central Asia – an issue that the World Bank’s chief analyst comments on. This week we provide numerous examples of what is going on throughout the Eurasian (and African) regions. All are showcases for tri-lateral investment between the three countries concerned motoring along rather faster in regional trade interconnectivity, integration and influence than Europe.

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CHINA             

China–Turkmenistan: Bilateral trade, Investment, and Future Prospects 

The President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedow is on a state visit to China at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping. The visit, scheduled between January 5 and 6, represents Berdimuhamedow’s first official visit to Beijing since taking over the presidency.  

China-Philippines Ties: 14 Bilateral Deals Signed During Marcos’ Visit  

The Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has been on a three-day state visit to China, where he met with President Xi Jinping in the hope of deepening bilateral trade and investment ties and addressing security concerns. 14 bilateral agreements were signed in key cooperation areas, adding to the hundreds that already exist between the two countries.

China’s Auto Positioning In The 2023 Russian Market 

During this year Chinese auto manufacturers based in Russia intend to produce a series of premiere-class vehicles at a time when many auto factories in Russia will also return to work after several months’ downtime due to uncertain market conditions. In this article, we look at which new Chinese auto investments and products can be expected during 2023.

ASEAN  

ASEAN Economic Outlook 2023  

The ASEAN region will remain one of the fastest-growing regions of the world in 2023 but economic growth will likely fall marginally from 2022. This is largely due to worsening global economic conditions and tightening monetary policy. The second half of the year will likely see conditions that are more conducive to organic growth as falling inflation provides central banks with greater rate flexibility. This should complement increasing economic activity in China.

CENTRAL ASIA        

World Bank Highlights Azerbaijan And Middle Corridor Between Europe & Asia As Ripe For Foreign Investment  

Antonio Nucifora, the Practice Manager for the Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment in Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank Group has said in regional media that the Middle Corridor still lacks some pieces of infrastructure and some sections are not yet developed meaning there are tremendous opportunities for infrastructural investment between Europe and Asia.

INDIA 

Russia-India Trade Prospects in 2023 & The Emergence Of The Ruble and Rupee In Asian Trade Flows    

At the end of 2022, India and Russia agreed to switch to trade settlements in their national currencies. Over the past year, trade turnover between New Delhi and Moscow has grown significantly and both intend to increase these volumes during 2023. Meanwhile, Russian exports to India significantly exceed Indian imports from this country, when the Indian Rupee significantly dipped against the US Dollar and the Russian Ruble. We look at how such variations can be overcome, setting in motion mechanisms for additional mutual settlement schemes with countries whose currencies may not be as strong as the Ruble, and look at the 2023 prospects for India-Russia bilateral trade.

MIDDLE EAST       

Saudi Arabia To Be World’s Fastest-Growing Major Economy in 2023   

Saudi Arabia is poised to jump ahead of India as the fastest-growing major economy in 2023. India’s GDP will grow 7% in the 2023-24 fiscal year ending in March 2024, according to the first official estimate released by the National Statistics Ministry. That will be second only to Saudi Arabia’s expected 7.6% growth, thanks to gains from a spike in energy prices that has boosted Saudi’s GDP figures.

UAE-Russia Non-Energy Bilateral Trade Up 57%  

The non-oil trade between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia increased by 57% during the first nine months of 2022, according to the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, Thani bin Ahmed Al-Zeyoudi. He stated on Wednesday (January 4) that non-oil foreign trade between Abu Dhabi and Moscow reached 20.2 billion dirhams (US$5.5 billion), during the first nine months of 2022.

AFRICA  

First Line On Nigeria’s Lagos Metro Opens    

The first phase of Nigeria’s capital city Lagos Blue Line metro route was opened on December 21, the first metro line in West Africa. The line was constructed by China Civil Engineering (CCE) as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

RUSSIA     

“A World Upside Down” – Risks and Opportunities Awaiting Russian Foreign Policy in 2023  

Political scientist Alexander Vedrussov on the risks and opportunities that await Russian foreign policy in 2023.

Russia’s Agricultural Trade With China Up 30% In 2022 

While much of the Russia-China trade talk during 2022 has been about China’s significantly increased purchases of Russian energy resources, bilateral trade has been increasing in other industry sectors too. One example is agriculture, where Russia and China increased trade in agricultural products in 11M 2022 to US$6 billion, which should amount to an annual trade increase of about US$6.5 billion.

BRI Global   

China’s Belt And Road & Beyond   

All our latest intelligence on who is doing what along the Belt & Road Initiative.