Chinese consumers – the Americans are coming
This is Part IV of our ongoing Letters from America to Asia Series, featuring opinions and observations on America’s trade relations with China and emerging Asia from Chris Devonshire-Ellis.
Oct. 22 – One of the main issues I’ve been discussing in the United States this past week with law and tax practices, universities, chambers of commerce and potential clients in Columbia, Charlotte, and San Francisco, is the growing trend of American exports to China. The demographics already tell us that a major wave of U.S. investment and exports to China is underway. What is little recognized, however, is how large that trend is becoming – and it’s my bet that we’ll see even more significant increases in U.S. sales to China in the near future. Just last year, American exports to the PRC surpassed US$100 billion for the first time ever – an astonishing increase of some 542 percent in the past decade.
In fact, much of the past two decades has seen the pan-China building of a massive American sales platform right across the country. Brands such as KFC, McDonald’s and Starbucks have all introduced the concept of the American quality and lifestyle experience that the bulk of Chinese consumers want to attain. It’s a little known phenomenon, maybe caused by the fact that these brands are not considered high-end in the United States, but in China they are a big deal. For example, taking your date to Starbucks for a cappuccino is a romantic notion for many young couples, as they experience their first move up the global consumer supply chain and away from traditional China. The environment these outlets provide for the Chinese consumer is one of a lifestyle upgrade in exoticism, good value, quality and fun. It is of significance that these are perceived as being representative of American values and are recognized as being U.S. lifestyle products. This has only enhanced the concepts of viability and trustworthiness of American products in China.
Let’s take a look at the consumer base these companies have already built and are continuing to develop on a national basis across China.
With a development platform like that to base the acceptance of American products and quality on, I predict a huge surge over the next decade for U.S. exports to China. The development of these consumer outlets represent a great opportunity for other American manufacturers to build on what has been achieved here and start to sell to a Chinese consumer market already familiar with the American concepts of value, quality and consistency – issues that China’s domestic brands have largely failed to emulate.
However, recent reports in the media have portrayed a slowdown in China’s economy, and some predictions of doom and gloom over the meaning of this. Is the Chinese economy contracting? Are those consumers really there? In fact, the actual volume of American exports to China has been increasing at rates that indicate there is little to no actual correlation between these two issues.
These are impressive statistics, and demonstrate that the new dynamic of American exports to China is well underway. In fact, 48 of America’s 50 states have recorded triple-digit growth in exports to China since 2000. I expect this trend to continue and to grow.
One of the central reasons for this is the fact that China is developing into a more consumer-based economy. I realize the recent headlines concerning GDP growth have screamed “slowdown,” but Q3 still showed real growth to be 7.4 percent. I’m not an economist, but growth rates at that level in what is the world’s second-largest economy do not seem unimpressive. Plus, in any event, China is a huge country and GDP growth rates there have never been uniform on a national basis. Growth may be sluggish in first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing (which collectively have four international airports, over 200 five-star hotels, and state of the art infrastructure), but this is representative of a greater evolutionary process. Such cities are built-out and the main growth driver – infrastructure development – is now being replaced with sustainable commerce. It is inevitable that once massive infrastructure projects cease, because these cities are essentially completed, that the GDP growth rates drop.
However, this “slowing” growth does not appear to apply nationally. China’s central regions experienced collective growth of 9.2 percent last year and Tianjin, the major port city servicing Beijing and western China, posted growth rates of 16 percent in Q3 this year. Chongqing, China’s huge centrally-located metropolis of some 29 million people, grew by a similar amount. Clearly, commentary of a slowdown in China has been rather poorly defined in relation to what is going on at ground level.
Interestingly, it’s the higher inland consumption growth rates in China that are beginning to correlate to the increase in U.S. exports. That is key when one considers the true implications of the consumer platforms that the likes of KFC, McDonald’s and Starbucks have built. I previously wrote about the emergence of (and growth within) China’s 4th-6th tier cities, and the supply chain and distribution channels to access these markets are obviously already in place.
Coupled with this has been the Chinese State Policy of increasing minimum wages across China on a national basis. This has been imposed at rates averaging 22 percent annually over the past few years, and it is set to continue. While that has negative implications in terms of the increasing costs of Chinese workers, it has very positive implications for the increasing wealth and disposable income levels of everyday, ordinary Chinese. They can now afford to buy imported products and foreign brands for the first time, and this increase in purchasing power is something that the American fast-food chains I have highlighted (as one example) have been very much aware of. It also means that China is no longer an export market restricted to first-tier locations such as Beijing and Shanghai, it is one that includes 650 cities of varying sizes on a truly national basis. That, in essence, underlines the true depth of meaning behind China’s joining the WTO. Its markets are open, and its citizens increasingly wealthy. It is estimated that some 600 million Chinese nationals – nearly double the population of the United States – will have incomes applicable to middle class standards by 2020.
This statistical trend of increasing American exports to China is also being pushed along by the emergence in the United States of a younger, more internationally-educated executive making their way onto the seats of America’s boardrooms. As I suggested last week, young educated American citizens are far more likely to have completed undergraduate or MBA studies abroad, and many of those have done so in China or elsewhere in Asia. Consequently, that greater understanding of the dynamics at play in China are now being recognized at decision-making levels, and American companies, once content to collect all their profits from domestic sales, are now looking at selling overseas as part of an active growth strategy.
In this column over the coming weeks, I will be identifying – together with the help of our American partner firms – how American companies can best maximize these new China opportunities, and begin the journey from being focused largely on American domestic sales to developing an export market across China and Asia. The future growth and profit opportunities for many American businesses lie in the exportation of your products, and the demographic trends solidly predict that Chinese consumers want to acquire them in increasing numbers.
Chris Devonshire-Ellis is the founding partner and principal of Dezan Shira & Associates. The firm was established in 1992 and assists foreign companies with legal, tax and operational issues in China and Asia, and has 17 offices across the region, including 12 in China. Chris is now based in North America and assists American manufacturers with their export plans and how to develop their strategy throughout Asia. The firm also partners with U.S.-based law and tax practices to assist them in developing their international practice as concerns client development into China and Asia. If you would like to discuss any of these issues, please contact Chris at email@example.com or visit www.dezshira.com.
Dezan Shira & Associates runs an American partner firm program which provides American law and tax firms with access to our China and Asian infrastructure (17 regional offices throughout China, India, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Singapore) and to our in-house American expatriate lawyers and tax experts housed in these offices. We are also available to discuss assistance with the development of an international desk for U.S.-based firms within their own practice, and with the development of services that may be sold by their firm to local clients who wish to start exporting overseas. We are in the process of building a national American network of partner firms to jointly develop and profit from the evolution of American corporations developing export markets and business strategies overseas. To learn more about and become part of our U.S. Partner Firm program, please contact Jessica Tou at firstname.lastname@example.org.
An Introduction to Doing Business in China
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The Complete ‘Letters from America to Asia’ Series
A complete list of past articles from our ongoing ‘Letters from America to Asia Series’ featuring opinions and observations on America’s trade relations with China and emerging Asia.
Delaware and Nevada Holding Companies for Chinese Foreign-Invested Enterprises
Co-Investing in China with Chinese Partners
Double Taxation Agreements for China Investment
U.S. Exports to China by State 2000-2010
Downloadable PDF report on U.S. export trends (state-by-state) from the U.S.-China Business Council
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A very rational counter proof to MSM fear-mongers trying to convince us China is doomed from slowing exports, rather than transitioning to a consumer economy by mandate. Much appreciated, Chris!
Excellent insight. This summarizes important trends that will have a growing impact on business in the Southeast U.S.
Thanks guys. American exports are good for the American economy, assist spread the hedging of sustainable profits from the traditional one domestic market and help create new American jobs. We’re very happy to bring back what we’ve learned in Asia back to the United States – a country that has always supported what we do as a firm. 50% of our clients come from the US and have done consistently for the past 20 years. If we can help American businesses develop their exports to China and Asia and profit when doing so then we are privileged to be able to spread the word and help lend a hand. – Best wishes – Chris
Good article, Chris.
Perhaps on one of your trips Stateside you could drop a copy off at each of President Obama’s and Romney’s offices.
@Observer: Well I keep coming across their tour buses in different States. I think they’re following me around. But I’ll just stick to the Giants getting to the World series, that’s good enough for me. – CDE
This article raises the question: What products account for this increase in U.S. exports to China? Is the U.S. simply exporting more quantities of the same products or are we exporting more and different products? The article seems to attribute the increase to “the fact that China is developing into a more consumer-based economy.” But last time I checked, our biggest exports were not consumer products. They were things like power generation equipment, electrical machinery, and aircraft. I guess all of these are needed to provide the infrastructure to support a growing consumer-based economy. So perhaps the increase is, in that sense, *indirectly* related to China’s growing consumer economy. We also export tons of soy beans and chicken feet, but not really any “consumer” products (those are all made in China already). I would like to know what consumer products are currently made in the U.S.A. that could find new markets in China. I suppose medical devices and luxury goods (e.g. booze) will be on the list. What else? I hope this is elucidated in subsequent articles in the series. Thanks.
@Hank – these are good points. We are aware of them and looking at extracting that data for future inclusion in these articles. Much of the ‘traditional’ – if you can call them that (exports have grown exponentially over the last decade) products have indeed been bulk food purchases (although these are of course the ultimate consumer items) and heavy industry items directly related to China’s pressing needs – emergy and commodities. There’s no real surprises there.
However, in terms of products seen on the shelves of Chinese supermarkets and retail stores (from Jenny Lous to Wal-Mart) we are seeing increasing amounts of other American consumer products arrive in China. This is also reflected in our American clients asking us for assistance with expanding their export sales into China and to the extent of establishing a permanent presence there. They may not make a dent in the billions of dollars of exports currently going to China, but they are having a postive impact on small-middle market American company profit and turn over figures. These smaller examples include everything from Greeting Cards, Refrigeration Units, Education Materials, Medical Devices, Home Appliances and consumer items like Fruit Juice and Sauces. And that’s just what I dealt with over the past week alone.
It may also be prudent to note that many component parts make their way into products that are thought of as being “made” in China whereas “assembled” might be a better term. Apples iphone and ipad for example contain only 3% of component parts actually manufactured in China, yet as much as 20% of the contents are actually from the US and this trend is increasing. An example here is Avago Technologies, who are currently expanding their manufacturing processes in Fort Collins, Colo., and is planning to buy as much as $130 million worth of manufacturing equipment due to demand from factories based in China. Avago is responsible for making a custom part for Apple’s iPhone 4S that allows one handset model to connect to multiple forms of wireless networks around the world.
China doesn’t possess globally dynamic technologies, and you’ll see far more American and European content start to come into China assembled devices as technology drives the new consumer and communications age forward. However we will try and dig deeper to pull out exactly what’s happening. But firms like ours, on the ground and right in that US-China trade area are certainly seeing an evolution take place, and one that is positive for American manufacturers and their ability to sell to China either as a domestic market in its own right or in its guise as a shop floor manufacturing base for internationally consumed finished product sales.
Best wishes – Chris
Thanks for an excellent article Chris. You might have included the opportunity that is open and growing for Chinese companies to market their products to the United States – something we’ve been working on. This too can lead to job creation as well as better understanding between the two cultures. It will take time – and there will be many challenges along the road but once the rhetoric of this political season dies down post-election (as well as the new standing committee in China) the interest should be even higher than it has been.
Thanks Mark, we’ll be covering Chinese investment into America later, although I don’t believe apart from commodities and technology purchasing of American assets it will amount to much. The US is already well adapted to buying Chinese products, repackaging and getting them into the American supply chain and can do that better than the Chinese of course.
But back to the original subject of American exports – the update to this article about how American companies can gain State and Federal funding to export to China and elsewhere can be found here: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/2012/10/29/letters-from-america-export-financing-as-a-key-component-of-u-s-trade-strategy-with-china.html
Thanks Chris – I will be sure to keep reading. Your insight is appreciated.
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