Belt And Road Weekly Investor Intelligence #105
Tuesday, November 1, 2022
Compiled by Chris Devonshire-Ellis
This week we examine the potential demand for China manufacturing in the wake of the CPC Congress reforms and delve into the Q3 trade figures to see pointers for 2023. Along the BRI, we see how the Ukraine conflict is affecting demand in Kazakhstan and Turkiye, and look at the proposals for a joint Azerbaijani-Iranian JV operator for the Western end of the INSTC, which will include managing goods transit to Europe. We look at why North Korea is opening 6 “trade offices” in Russia and the implications of Huawei leaving the Russian market.
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A complete restructuring of China’s SOEs and Private Sector can be expected to meet the CPC targets with new hybrid models being introduced as unique economic structural solutions.
A rise in Chinese consumption may be the only bright spot as Western markets tip into recession during Q4 2022 and 2023.
The mutual trade between Kazakhstan and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries grew by 5% in the first eight months of 2022, according to Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov. The EAEU comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, with the latter being the dominant trade partner.
Turkiye’s Ministry of Trade has announced its foreign trade statistics for September 2022. According to the data, exports increased by 9.2% in September compared to the relevant month in 2021, reaching US$22.62 billion. This amount is the country’s highest ever September export figure. Imports also increased by 41.5% in the same period and reached US$33 billion.
Aims at ensuring that by 2030 the capacity of the western route of the North-South corridor will increase from the current 9 million tons to at least 15 million tons of cargo. In the first nine months of 2022, foreign trade transportation between Russia and Azerbaijan by rail amounted to 5.4 million tons, 57% higher than the same period in 2021.
The Chinese MNC Huawei, a major smartphone and tablet producer, is poised to leave the Russian market – although that doesn’t necessarily mean that Huawei products will be unobtainable in Russia. Sales to Russia are to be picked up instead by distributors, parallel imports, and by making Russia-only kits.
Indicates DPRK workers could be about to assist with Far East Russian infrastructure development projects as military deployment reduces number of available Russian workers.
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