China-Bulgaria Economic Ties: Trade, Investment, and Opportunities

• Bulgaria has been a pivotal and early partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, establishing itself as a key strategic node in the economic landscape of the Balkan region, and has shown strong receptivity to Chinese investments, particularly in the infrastructure and technology sectors.
• Bulgaria offers a highly competitive tax environment, with a corporate tax rate of 10 percent and a flat personal income tax rate of 10 percent, the lowest in the European Union. Combined with a growing economy, Bulgaria is an attractive destination for foreign companies, including those seeking to optimize their tax burden.
• Chinese investments in Bulgaria have focused on high-potential sectors such as automotive, renewable energy, information communication technology, and financial services, contributing to Bulgaria’s economic diversification and modernization.

Nestled at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Bulgaria emerged as a pivotal and early partner

country in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), becoming a key strategic node in the Balkan region’s economic landscape. China and Bulgaria established diplomatic relations on October 4, 1949, making the Republic of Bulgaria the second country in the world to establish diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic of China. In January 2014, the two countries established a comprehensive friendly cooperation partnership. In July 2019, they upgraded their relationship to a strategic partnership.

The current diplomatic relationship between China and Bulgaria is characterized by mutual respect and strategic cooperation. In July 2024, Vice Minister of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, Chen Zhou, led a Chinese Communist Party delegation on a visit to Bulgaria to strengthen bilateral relations and explore further co-development opportunities. Bulgarian officials have consistently emphasized the importance of maintaining good relations with China, viewing the partnership as crucial for economic development and global positioning.

Despite global challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, the two countries maintain a commitment to mutual understanding and cooperative development. As Bulgaria navigates its economic transformation, its partnership with China offers a promising pathway to technological innovation, infrastructure development, and global economic engagement.

This article closely examines the bilateral trade and investment relationship between China and Bulgaria, exploring potential opportunities for future cooperation.

China-Bulgaria bilateral trade

China exports to Bulgaria

In the first half of 2024, trade totaled US$1.96 billion, though experiencing a 9.3 percent decline compared to the previous year. China maintains a significant trade advantage, with exports reaching US$1.34 billion and imports from Bulgaria at US$616 million, creating a trade surplus of approximately US$727 million.

China’s Top Exports to Bulgaria, 2023

Source: ITC

What has increased from 2019 to 2023:

• Miscellaneous chemical products: 53 percent increase
• Electrical machinery and equipment: 31 percent increase
• Plastic and articles thereof: 30 percent increase
• Articles of iron and steel: 22 percent increase
• Iron and steel: 22 percent increase

Bulgaria exports to China

China is a key economic partner for Bulgaria, ranking as the country’s third-largest trade partner outside the European Union and its second-largest export destination. Since 2020, Bulgarian agricultural exports to China have maintained an annual growth rate exceeding 50 percent, driven by the rising popularity of signature Bulgarian products such as rose-based goods and yogurt.

With China’s growing demand for high-quality imported goods, Bulgarian officials have emphasized their ambition to diversify and upscale exports to China, targeting high-value sectors such as essential oils, cosmetics, and advanced technology. These robust and mutually advantageous trade relationships are positioned for sustained growth in the coming years.

Bulgaria’s Top Exports to China, 2023

Source: ITC

What has increased from 2019 to 2023:

• Inorganic chemicals, organic or inorganic compounds of precious metals: 224 percent increase
• Residues and waste from the food industries: 212 percent increase
• Articles of iron or steel: 97 percent increase
• Alumim: 78 percent increase

China-Bulgaria investment

Bulgaria’s economic structure, predominantly service-oriented with a 69.2 percent service sector, 26.5 percent industrial base, and 4.3 percent agricultural contribution, provides fertile ground for international collaboration. As a small but open economy heavily dependent on foreign investment, Bulgaria sees China as a critical economic partner within its broader European Union integration strategy.

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With cumulative Chinese investments in Bulgaria exceeding US$600 million and direct investment stock estimated at US$167 million, the bilateral economic relationship is expanding across strategic sectors. Within Bulgaria’s future development strategy, outlined in the “Bulgaria 2030” plan, aims to transform the country into a high-standard, low-carbon economy by 2030. The strategy focuses on innovation, education, sustainability, and social inclusivity, with key goals to accelerate economic growth, promote population growth, and reduce social and regional inequalities.

The country plans to improve resource efficiency, bridge the digital gap, and attract investments through sectors such as smart industries, the green economy, and digital connectivity. These ambitious objectives provide significant investment opportunities for foreign companies and foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in areas like renewable energy, clean technologies, sustainable agriculture, and digital infrastructure. This makes Bulgaria an attractive destination for investors looking to capitalize on a rapidly evolving market.

Bulgaria has experienced steady growth in FDI in recent years, with the total FDI stock reaching approximately US$57.95 billion by the end of 2022, reflecting a significant increase of around US$2.99 billion from the previous year. The primary sources of foreign investment come from economically advanced European countries such as the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany, which maintain high levels of investment in Bulgaria.

The sectors attracting the most foreign capital include real estate, manufacturing, and the financial insurance industry, which offer high returns and quick profits. In particular, Bulgaria’s manufacturing and financial sectors have consistently seen FDI stocks exceeding US$7 billion. The country’s low corporate tax rate of 10 percent and a flat personal income tax rate of 10 percent, the lowest in the European Union, make it an attractive destination for foreign companies looking to optimize their tax burden while investing in a growing economy.

China has also been increasing its investments in Bulgaria, with a focus on key sectors such as automotive, renewable energy, information communication technology, agricultural cooperation, and financial services.

According to the Ministry of Commerce of China, China’s direct investment in Bulgaria in 2022 amounted to US$5.94 million. Over 20 Chinese enterprises are currently operating in Bulgaria. In the agricultural sector, China has invested in the Tianjin Agricultural Cooperative Demonstration Zone for China-Central and Eastern European Countries, as well as a feed factory in the Dobrich region, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons, which primarily exports to the EU and China.

In the information technology sector, Huawei and ZTE have established strong partnerships with Bulgarian telecom operators, contributing to multiple projects, with Huawei becoming one of the leading suppliers in Bulgaria’s telecom market. In the renewable energy sector, China’s PowerChina signed a US$25 million contract for a 46.5 MW photovoltaic project in Belozane in August 2021. Additionally, the Jinan Boiler Group completed a biomass power plant project in Bulgaria in August 2023. In financial services, the China Development Bank has reached a $1.5 billion cooperation agreement with Bulgaria, the largest financial cooperation between the two countries in recent years, and has already issued US$380 million in loans.

Bulgaria offers a competitive environment for foreign investment. Chinese companies can take advantage of sectors aligned with China’s BRI, such as infrastructure, renewable energy, and technology. With its low tax rates, strategic location within the EU, and increasing foreign capital inflows, Bulgaria continues to be an attractive destination for Chinese and other foreign investors looking to expand in the region.

China-Bulgaria agreements

The Agreement Between the People’s Republic of China and the People’s Republic of Bulgaria Concerning the Reciprocal Encouragement and Protection of Investments was signed on 27th June, 1989 aims to foster investment between the two countries while ensuring protection and favorable conditions for investors. Below is a summary of key provisions:

• Investment protection: Both countries will encourage and protect investments in accordance with their domestic laws. Investments and their returns will enjoy protection under this agreement, including reinvested returns.
• Fair and equitable treatment: Investments will be treated fairly and equitably and must not be less favorable than those of third countries. No preferential treatment based on specific trade agreements will apply to third-party investors.
• Transfer of funds: Each country guarantees the transfer of capital, returns, liquidation amounts, compensation, and earnings from investments, subject to domestic laws and taxes.
• Dispute resolution: Disputes between the countries regarding the agreement will first be settled through diplomatic consultation. If unresolved, they can be submitted to an ad hoc arbitral tribunal. Disputes over expropriation compensation can also be submitted to arbitration.

China-Bulgaria double taxation avoidance agreement

The Double Taxation Agreement (DTA) between China and Bulgaria is designed to avoid the risk of double taxation for individuals and businesses engaged in cross-border activities, fostering economic cooperation between the two countries. The DTA, effective from January 1, 1957, outlines the allocation of taxing rights on various types of income to ensure that neither country imposes double taxes on the same income.

The DTA reduces the withholding tax rates on specific income types to alleviate the tax burden on cross-border transactions:

• Dividends: Taxed at a reduced rate of 5 percent or 10 percent, depending on ownership thresholds.
• Interest: Generally taxed at 10 percent.
• Royalties: Generally taxed at 10 percent.

The DTA also includes an anti-abuse provision to prevent misuse of its benefits for tax avoidance, ensuring that the provisions are used for legitimate economic activities.

China-Bulgaria opportunities

Rose oil and essential oils industry

Bulgaria’s globally recognized rose oil industry presents a promising opportunity for Chinese companies seeking to invest in high-value agricultural products. Known as the “Rose Country,” Bulgaria accounts for 40 percent of global rose oil demand, with over 90 percent of its production exported to markets such as France, the U.S., and Japan. The high price of rose oil, ranging from approximately US$7,500 to US$10,700 per kilogram for organic varieties, positions this sector as a premium investment avenue. Chinese companies with similar industrial or technological knowledge can collaborate with local producers to enhance processing manufacturers, establish joint ventures, or expand the distribution of Bulgarian rose oil in the Chinese market, leveraging its growing demand for luxury and natural cosmetic products.

Beyond roses, Bulgaria is diversifying its essential oil production to include lavender, mint, and wild rose. These products have increasing global appeal for use in cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and aromatherapy, offering additional areas for Chinese investment in cultivation, processing, and export logistics.

Wine industry

As a traditional strength of the Bulgarian economy, the wine industry offers significant potential for growth, particularly in exports to China. Bulgaria is renowned for its high-quality wines and was once the second-largest exporter of bottled wine globally. In recent years, Bulgarian wine exports to China have seen a steady increase, driven by its competitive pricing and unique varieties. Chinese investors can support Bulgarian wineries by investing in modern production facilities, enhancing branding and marketing strategies, or establishing distribution networks to meet the growing demand for imported wines in China.

Furthermore, partnerships in wine tourism could unlock additional value, as Bulgaria hosts one of the largest wine exhibitions in Central and Eastern Europe, “Vinaria,” attracting international attention and creating a platform for showcasing Bulgarian wines to global audiences.

Information technology sector

Bulgaria’s information technology (IT) sector, one of the most dynamic and rapidly growing in the country, has been a prime target for Chinese investment in recent years. The industry generates over 4 percent of Bulgaria’s GDP, with an annual revenue of US$2.94 billion, and employs a young and skilled workforce. Notably, the average salaries of IT professionals in Bulgaria surpass those in Germany and the UK, reflecting the sector’s competitiveness and high level of expertise. Chinese companies can capitalize on Bulgaria’s talent pool by setting up software development centers, outsourcing IT services, or partnering with local startups to foster innovation.

Renewable energy and green economy

China’s expertise in solar, wind, and biomass technologies aligns well with Bulgaria’s green economy initiatives, particularly in renewable energy. Having achieved its EU 2020 renewable energy targets ahead of schedule, Bulgaria is now focusing on revitalizing investment in this sector after a period of stagnation. Chinese companies can explore opportunities to develop solar farms, wind power projects, or biomass energy facilities. Additionally, joint ventures in clean energy technology and infrastructure modernization can support Bulgaria’s transition to a sustainable energy system.

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Bulgaria is shifting away from coal dependency, with ambitious plans to decarbonize its power sector, triple renewable energy generation by 2026, and build large-scale energy storage facilities. These efforts align with the EU’s climate goals and Bulgaria’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), creating an environment ripe for investment and innovation. EU-supported projects aimed at reducing coal dependency and enhancing air quality create opportunities for Chinese companies specializing in energy efficiency technologies, hydrogen-based transportation, and low-emission industrial solutions.
Solar energy

The photovoltaic (PV) sector in Bulgaria has experienced rapid growth, with electricity generation increasing by 33 percent in 2022 due to additional installed capacities and favorable weather conditions. The government plans to connect 4,500 MW of new renewable energy capacity to the grid by the end of 2024, primarily from solar energy. Chinese companies and other foreign investors can play a pivotal role in this expansion by:

• Developing large-scale solar farms.
• Providing advanced PV technologies to improve efficiency.
• Collaborating on innovative financing models to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in installing rooftop solar systems.

Wind energy

While Bulgaria has untapped potential in wind energy, particularly in coastal and mountainous regions, the sector has lagged behind solar energy. Investments in modern wind turbines, offshore wind farms, and hybrid renewable systems combining solar and wind energy could address this gap. Collaboration ventures between Bulgarian and international firms can drive growth and innovation in this area.

Energy storage solutions

Energy storage remains a cornerstone of Bulgaria’s decarbonization strategy. The country’s reliance on pumped-storage hydropower plants (HPPs) has been hampered by inefficiencies and delays in modernization. However, there is a growing emphasis on battery storage technologies, which offer flexibility and scalability. Opportunities include:

• Developing large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) to support grid stability and renewable integration.
• Creating modular and distributed storage solutions tailored for industrial consumers and SMEs.
• Leveraging public-private partnerships to finance storage projects under the RRP.

Green hydrogen and biogas

The Bulgarian government’s focus on diversifying energy sources includes green hydrogen and biogas production. Bulgaria’s natural resources and agricultural byproducts provide an excellent foundation for biogas projects, while investments in electrolysis technologies can unlock the potential for green hydrogen. Opportunities include:

• Establishing pilot projects for green hydrogen production and distribution.
• Developing biogas facilities in rural areas to support waste-to-energy initiatives.
• Collaborating with research institutions to advance hydrogen fuel cell technology.

Circular economy and waste management

Bulgaria’s circular economy remains underdeveloped, with significant gaps in waste recycling and green public procurement. This presents an opportunity for Chinese companies with expertise in recycling technologies, sustainable packaging, and e-waste management. Partnerships in these areas can help Bulgaria close its performance gap with EU averages while addressing pressing environmental challenges. Investments in innovative business models, such as upcycling and resource recovery, could also unlock untapped potential in the circular economy sector.

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