EU-China Relations After the 2024 European Elections: A Timeline

EU-China relations play a crucial role in the global business landscape. The current circumstances, marked by geopolitical shifts, economic interdependence, and technological competition, contribute to the volatility and frequent adjustments in this relationship. In this timeline, we aim to capture key milestones and developments that shape EU-China ties.

The European Parliament elections, held between June 6 and June 9, 2024, have ushered in a new era for EU-China relations. The election results revealed a significant shift in the political landscape, with centrist parties losing ground to far-right groups like the Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). This political realignment is poised to influence the EU’s approach to China, introducing more varied and potentially conflicting perspectives on policy.

Traditionally, the EU has maintained a cautious stance toward China, epitomized by the 2019 publication of the EU-China Strategic Outlook, which framed the relationship as one of “partnership, competition, and systemic rivalry.” This tripartite approach was later reiterated in the European Council’s Conclusion on China. However, the narrative toward China has taken a decisive turn with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s speech delivered on March 30, 2023. This speech marked a shift towards a more assertive stance, further strengthened by the release of the European Economic Security Strategy in June of the same year.

Following these events, the EU-China Summit held from December 7 to 8, 2023, served as a crucial opportunity for the EU to re-establish its engagement with China under these new conditions. Given China’s critical role in the global economy, the EU emphasized the need for robust regulatory tools to counter market distortions and enhance supply chain resilience.

In the aftermath of the 2024 elections, the increased fragmentation within the EU Parliament suggests a more complex and uncertain path to forming a cohesive strategy toward China. This uncertainty poses challenges for European companies conducting business with China, as well as Chinese and global businesses operating in Europe, who must now navigate a more unpredictable regulatory environment.

Amid these developments, the Chinese government is keenly observing the evolving dynamics within the EU. China aims to cultivate allies within the European bloc, and this intent was evident during President Xi Jinping’s recent European tour, which included official visits to France, Serbia, and Hungary. During his visit, President Xi reiterated the EU’s significance as China’s major trading partner.

As the new EU Parliament begins its work, strategic discussions have been underway to address key issues, including the EU’s technological and strategic autonomy. To manage different views and promote collaboration on shared interests with China, new cross-regional working groups have been established. These groups are focusing on sectors such as agriculture, aviation, artificial intelligence, energy, and finance, aiming to enhance resilience and foster dialogue.

In this article, we present a timeline of EU-China relations following the EU Parliament elections, reflecting the complexities and opportunities presented by this new chapter in bilateral relations.

EU-China relations after the 2024 EU elections

October 8, 2024 – China implements temporary anti-dumping measures on EU brandy

In response to the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs, China has enacted temporary anti-dumping measures targeting brandy imports from the EU. China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that these measures would affect well-known brands such as Hennessy and Rémy Martin, following a preliminary investigation that found that EU brandy imports are causing significant harm to China’s domestic brandy sector.

Effective October 11, importers of EU brandy will be required to pay security deposits ranging from 34.8 percent to 39.0 percent of the import value, increasing the upfront costs for these products. This move particularly impacts France, which accounted for nearly all of China’s brandy imports last year, totaling US$1.7 billion. Shares in major brands, including Pernod Ricard and LVMH, experienced declines following the announcement.

The Chinese ministry has also hinted at potential future measures, including ongoing investigations into EU pork products and possible tariff increases on imports of larger-engine vehicles, which would disproportionately affect German manufacturers.

October 4 to October 7, 2024 – EU’s inconclusive vote on Chinese EV tariffs leaves final decision to European Commission

The European Union remains divided on the imposition of tariffs of up to 45 percent on Chinese EVs, leaving the final decision to the European Commission. A vote among EU member states on October 4, 2024, failed to reach a clear consensus, with some countries opposing the move, while others abstained, reflecting ongoing disagreements within the bloc. This leaves the Commission with the option to either move forward with the tariffs or propose a revised plan to gain broader support. The proposed tariffs aim to address concerns about state subsidies that enable Chinese automakers to undercut European competitors, but they have drawn strong opposition from both China and several EU members, particularly Germany and Hungary, which have significant economic ties with China.

While the European auto industry has raised alarms about the potential negative impact of the tariffs, the Chinese government has condemned the move, urging the EU to return to resolving trade disputes through dialogue.

September 23, 2024 – EU Member States prepare for final vote on Chinese EV tariffs as tensions escalate

As the deadline for a decision on EU tariffs on Chinese EV imports looms, China and the EU are racing to find a diplomatic solution to avoid deepening trade tensions. EU Member States are set to vote by the end of October 2024 on whether to proceed with the proposed tariffs, while China considers retaliatory actions against various EU industries.

In recent discussions, China has suggested voluntary export restraints to address the EU’s concerns about Chinese EVs flooding the market. However, it remains unclear whether this proposal will be enough to prevent the imposition of tariffs. Simultaneously, China has hinted at pursuing bilateral negotiations with individual EU member states to shift the broader stance of the bloc toward a more favorable position for Chinese exports.

With the possibility of a damaging trade war on the horizon, both sides are exploring potential solutions for de-escalation, though tensions remain high as the final vote approaches.

September 19, 2024 – Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao meets EU Trade Chief Valdis Dombrovskis in Brussels, discusses potential EV tariffs

On September 19, 2024, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with EU Trade Chief Valdis Dombrovskis in Brussels, marking a key moment in the ongoing trade negotiations regarding EU tariffs on Chinese EV imports. Despite not reaching a final agreement, both sides characterized the talks as “comprehensive, in-depth, and constructive.” The Chinese readout, however, warned of potential “necessary responses” if the EU proceeded with what China deemed “unreasonable taxation measures.”

The meeting highlighted continued diplomatic efforts to avoid a trade war between the EU and China, with discussions centered on reconsidering price undertakings. This would involve China setting minimum export prices for EVs destined for the EU, though the EU has previously rejected similar proposals. Despite the stalemate, the two sides reaffirmed their political will to seek a mutually agreeable solution, keeping the door open for further negotiations.

September 9, 2024 – Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez meets with Xi Jinping, discusses trade relations, EV tariffs, and bilateral cooperation

On September 9, 2024, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. During the meeting, Xi Jinping encouraged Sanchez to play a “constructive role” in improving the strained relations between China and the EU. Sanchez expressed Spain’s desire to avoid a trade war and seek a negotiated consensus on the EU’s proposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).

The discussions also focused on enhancing commercial ties between China and Spain, particularly in high-tech sectors such as artificial intelligence, digital economy, and new energy. Xi emphasized the importance of maintaining a balanced and mutually beneficial China-EU relationship.

In recent developments, China has reacted to the EU’s potential tariffs on Chinese EVs by launching anti-dumping investigations into European pork imports and, more recently, EU dairy subsidies. These measures have heightened trade tensions, with Spain being a significant exporter of both pork and dairy products to China.

Sanchez, prior to his meeting with Xi, had expressed Spain’s commitment to working through the World Trade Organization to resolve the EV tariff dispute, highlighting that a trade war would be detrimental to all parties involved. The visit also included discussions on Spain’s trade deficit and potential impacts on its automotive sector, particularly regarding SEAT-CUPRA’s Chinese-manufactured electric vehicles.

The meeting concluded with both leaders seeking to find common ground and agreements to address trade differences, aiming to build a fair trade order and enhance bilateral cooperation. Sanchez is expected to further engage with Chinese companies and sign agreements to bolster Spain’s green technology sector. You can read more about China-Spain relations in this article.

September 9, 2024 – Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing: visa free travel to China and trade cooperation among key discussions

On September 9, 2024, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. During the official visit, President Xi announced a new visa policy allowing Norwegians to enter China for up to 15 days without needing a visa. This initiative aims to facilitate easier travel and enhance cooperation between Norway and China.

In their discussions, the leaders highlighted several key areas of bilateral cooperation:

• Climate and green transition: Both parties explored ways to strengthen collaboration on climate goals and sustainability. Norway’s role as a major energy nation and China’s influence on global climate targets were key topics.
• Trade and maritime industry: The conversation also covered trade relations, with an emphasis on increasing Norwegian exports to China, particularly in seafood. The maritime industry was identified as a significant area for cooperation due to both nations’ coastal interests.

August 20 to August 22, 2024 – The European Commission discloses draft imposing definitive duties on Chinese EVs, China launches anti-subsidies investigation on European dairy products

On August 20, 2024, the European Commission (EC) disclosed a draft decision to impose definitive countervailing duties on battery electric vehicles (EVs) imported from China. The proposed duties range from 9 percent for Tesla, which exports from China, to 36.3 percent for SAIC. Major Chinese companies such as BYD and Geely face duties of 17.0 percent and 19.3 percent, respectively. The final ruling is anticipated on November 4, 2024.

In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) strongly opposed the EC’s findings, criticizing them as being based on unilateral facts that disregarded China’s input. MOFCOM emphasized China’s resolve to protect its businesses’ rights, signaling a potential escalation in trade disputes.

On August 21, 2024, a day after the EC’s announcement, MOFCOM launched an anti-subsidy investigation into EU dairy products, targeting items such as fresh and processed cheese, and milk and cream with a fat content of 10 percent or higher. The investigation will scrutinize 20 EU subsidy programs, including those under the Common Agricultural Policy, focusing on 13 country-specific and seven EU-wide schemes. Key exporters, including France, Italy, Denmark, and the Netherlands, are under particular scrutiny.

August 14, 2024 – German investment in China soars in H1 2024

German direct investment in China has surged significantly in 2024, highlighting a trend where Europe’s largest economy is increasingly disregarding government calls to diversify and reduce exposure to geopolitical risks. Data from the Bundesbank reveals that German direct investment in China reached €2.48 billion in the first quarter of 2024 and soared to €4.8 billion in the second quarter, bringing the total for the first half of the year to €7.3 billion, compared to €6.5 billion for the entirety of 2023.

German companies, particularly major automotive manufacturers, continue to invest heavily in China. Recent investments by Volkswagen and BMW exemplify this ongoing commitment.

July 28 to July 31, 2024 – Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits China, signs 3-year action plan to foster trade ties

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni conducted an official visit to the People’s Republic of China from July 28 to 31, 2024, with the goal of fostering fairer trade relations and enhancing economic cooperation between the two nations. On the first day of her visit, Meloni participated in the Italy-China Business Forum in Beijing, where over 100 Italian and Chinese companies and trade associations convened. During this forum, Meloni and Chinese Premier Li Qiang presided over the signing ceremony for six agreements spanning various sectors, including industry, food safety, and education. These agreements mark significant steps towards addressing Italy’s trade deficit with China and balancing investment levels between the two countries.

On July 29, Meloni delivered a speech at the Beijing World Art Museum during the launch of the exhibition ‘A Journey of Knowledge: The Travels of Marco Polo and Its Legacy Between East and West,’ followed by a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Discussions emphasized strengthening bilateral trade and investment ties, particularly in strategic sectors such as electric mobility and renewable energy. The Memorandum of Industrial Cooperation, a key outcome of the visit, aims to leverage China’s advancements in these technological frontiers, fostering mutual growth and innovation.

Concluding her visit, Meloni announced a three-year action plan designed to implement past agreements and explore new forms of cooperation. This plan comes at a crucial time, as Italy seeks to maintain strong economic relations with China despite exiting the Belt and Road Initiative earlier this year. Both nations expressed commitments to creating fair and transparent business environments, with China pledging to open its markets further and Italy ensuring equitable treatment for Chinese enterprises. These efforts underscore the shared objective of nurturing a balanced and mutually advantageous economic partnership amidst evolving global trade dynamics.

July 25, 2024 – Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to visit China with focus on trade and investment

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is set to visit China from July 26 to 31, marking her first official trip to the country since assuming office. The primary goal of her visit is to enhance economic ties between Italy and China, with a strong emphasis on boosting trade and investment. During her stay, Meloni is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.

Key Italian companies, including tyre manufacturer Pirelli, energy giant ENI, defense conglomerate Leonardo, prominent wine producers, and several luxury fashion brands like Dolce & Gabbana, will participate in an Italy-China Business Forum held in Beijing scheduled over the weekend. This forum aims to strengthen commercial relations and explore new business opportunities.

Italy had previously joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2019, becoming the only G7 country to do so. However, the country withdrew from the initiative in 2023, largely due to US pressure and concerns about China’s economic influence.

During her visit, Meloni is expected to negotiate bilateral trade and industrial agreements, with a particular focus on sectors such as the automotive industry. The Italian government is actively engaging with Chinese automakers to attract additional investment and boost domestic car production beyond the current presence of Stellantis. Discussions are also anticipated on issues such as Chinese overcapacity in production and China’s support for Russia amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

Notably, this visit aligns with recent discussions among G7 nations, including Italy, which have emphasized the need to protect their businesses from unfair practices while continuing to support global economic development.

July 19, 2024 – Ursula von der Leyen elected for second term as EU Commission president

Ursula von der Leyen has been re-elected for a second five-year term as the President of the European Commission, securing a strong majority in the European Parliament. Her re-election ensures stability in EU leadership amid ongoing crises, including the war in Ukraine, climate change, migration, and housing shortages.

In her re-election speech, von der Leyen committed to strengthening the EU economy, enhancing police and border agencies, and tackling migration while advancing climate policies. She emphasized the need to support farmers protesting against stringent EU environmental regulations and bureaucracy. Additionally, von der Leyen criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent visit to Russia, labeling it an “appeasement mission,” and reaffirmed Europe’s solidarity with Ukraine.

Von der Leyen’s leadership over the past five years has seen the EU navigate Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, and Russia’s war with Ukraine. She has also been a driving force behind the EU’s Green Deal, which aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

As von der Leyen embarks on her second term, she will be joined by Antonio Costa of Portugal as the new European Council president and Estonia’s Kaja Kallas as the EU’s top diplomat, pending parliamentary approval. Kallas is known for her strong support of Ukraine and critical stance towards Russia.

In the context of EU-China relations, von der Leyen’s re-election signifies a continuation of the EU’s approach to its strategic partnership with China. The EU’s policies towards China are expected to remain focused on balancing cooperation and competition, addressing issues such as trade and technology.

The EU’s strategic autonomy and resilience will likely be key themes in von der Leyen’s second term, particularly in light of recent global geopolitical shifts. Her administration will continue to navigate the complex dynamics of EU-China relations, ensuring that Europe’s interests are safeguarded while engaging with China on critical global issues.

July 18, 2024 – Divisions emerge among EU Member States over proposed EV tariffs, while China launches an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork exports

A recent non-binding advisory vote by the EU revealed significant divisions among member states over proposed provisional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). Only 10 of the 27 EU countries supported these tariffs, with France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and Poland in favor, while Germany, Sweden, and Austria abstained, and Hungary, Slovakia, Cyprus, and Malta opposed

Securing the required qualified majority—15 member states representing 65 percent of the bloc’s population—remains uncertain, largely due to Germany’s strong opposition. The European Commission may adjust its stance to accommodate Germany’s significant exports of EVs to China.

In parallel, China has launched an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork exports, targeting major exporters such as Danish Crown, Vion Boxtel, and Litera Meat. This investigation follows the EU’s move on EV tariffs and reflects broader trade disputes between the two regions. The Chinese Commerce Ministry is examining whether these pork exports have been sold below cost and if they have harmed the domestic market in China.

The Dutch Meat Association and the companies involved deny any violations of trade regulations.

July 8, 2024 – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives in China, meets with President Xi Jinping

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on July 8, 2024, at the Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing. This meeting follows Orban’s discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin about a potential peace deal for Ukraine.

The Beijing visit is part of Orban’s “peace mission,” launched shortly after Hungary took over the EU’s rotating presidency at the beginning of July. Orban highlighted this mission on his official X account upon arrival in Beijing, underscoring Hungary’s efforts to foster peace in the region.

China, maintaining strong ties with Russia, has been actively promoting a six-point peace plan initially issued with Brazil in May, 2024. Orban expressed his appreciation for China’s peace initiatives. He emphasized the significance of China’s role in establishing conditions for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly for Hungary, which shares a border with Ukraine.

July 5, 2024 – China to hold hearing on European brandy imports

China’s Ministry of Commerce has scheduled a hearing for July 18 to address claims that European brandy producers are dumping their products in China by selling them below market rates. This investigation follows requests from prominent brandy houses such as Martell, Societe Jas Hennessy & Co, and Rémy Martin.

The investigation could lead to China imposing duties on EU brandy imports, which would notably impact French producers, who account for approximately 99 percent of all EU brandy exports to China.

July 3, 2024 – Xi Jinping congratulates Antonio Costa on his election as President of the European Council

Chinese President Xi Jinping has extended his congratulations to Antonio Costa on his election as President of the European Council. In his message, Xi emphasized China’s commitment to its strategic partnership with the EU and highlighted the importance of Europe in a multi-polar global structure.

Xi reiterated China’s dedication to fostering a robust China-EU partnership, expressing his readiness to collaborate with Costa to maintain and strengthen their bilateral relations. He outlined focal points for future cooperation, including deepening strategic communication, enhancing mutual understanding and political trust, building consensus, and expanding cooperation across various fields. These efforts aim to ensure the steady development of China-EU relations and contribute positively to world peace and development.

Additionally, Chinese Premier Li Qiang extended his congratulations to Costa, signaling the importance China places on its relationship with the new leadership of the European Council.

The election of Costa and the positive response from Chinese leadership indicate a mutual interest in expanding collaborative efforts between China and the EU.

June 24 to June 25, 2024 – Polish President Andrzej Duda visits Beijing, meets with President Xi

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Polish President Andrzej Duda met in Beijing on June 24, 2024, to discuss enhancing cooperation between China and Poland. The meeting, held at the Great Hall of the People, highlighted the robust and longstanding relationship between the two nations. President Xi praised President Duda as a “long-time friend” and emphasized the enduring nature of Sino-Polish relations amid global uncertainties.

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Key outcomes of the meeting included agreements on bilateral trade, investment cooperation, and agricultural exports. These agreements aim to strengthen economic ties between China and Poland, which could have significant implications for the business communities in both countries as well as in Europe. During the meeting President Xi also announced that China will remove the visa requirement for Polish citizens, allowing them to enter the country without a visa for stays of up to 15 days. The new policy is expected to facilitate easier travel for Polish tourists and businesspeople, thereby promoting cultural exchange and economic cooperation between the two nations.

In the context of increasing tensions between China and the EU—particularly over proposed tariffs on electric vehicles and China’s investigation into EU pork imports—the Sino-Polish dialogue stands out as a beacon of potential stability and cooperation. President Duda’s remarks on the mutual respect and strong political relationship between Poland and China over the past 75 years highlight a foundation for continued positive engagement.

The launch of a new freight train service from Guangzhou to Warsaw further underscores the commitment to improving trade efficiency. This service, which reduces transit time by 30 percent, is expected to enhance the flow of goods such as air conditioners and coffee machine accessories, benefiting businesses on both sides. This development is particularly significant for the Polish business community, which stands to gain from quicker and more reliable access to Chinese markets.

June 23, 2024 – China and the EU are set to have more talks regarding EV tariffs

China has agreed to enter discussions with the EU regarding the imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese EVs. This decision was announced during the visit of Germany’s Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, Robert Habeck, to Beijing. Habeck welcomed this move as a positive first step, though he noted that further actions would be necessary.

The talks aim to address the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation launched last year, which led to the decision to increase tariffs on Chinese EVs up to 48 percent. The agreement to begin consultations follows a video conference between China’s Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and EU Executive Vice-President and Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.

Germany, heavily reliant on the Chinese market for its carmaking industry, has been critical of the EU’s tariff decision. Habeck’s visit marks the first by a senior European politician since the new duties were announced. The Chinese market’s significance for German carmakers makes Berlin particularly vulnerable to any potential retaliatory measures from the Chinese government, which has already initiated an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork products.

June 13 to June 15, 2024 – G7 reunites in Italy and issues warning to China, escalating trade tensions

During the G7 summit held in Apulia, Italy, leaders issued a strong warning to China over its trade practices, highlighting concerns such as “harmful overcapacity” and “market distortions.” While emphasizing that their aim is not to harm China, they expressed reservations about its industrial policies and non-market practices. Additionally, the G7 leaders condemned China’s support for Russia, particularly the transfer of dual-use materials that could aid Russia’s defense sector, and pledged to take measures against entities in China and third countries that support Russia’s military efforts. This follows the European Commission’s announcement of import duties on Chinese EVs, further escalating trade tensions.

In response, the Chinese government accused the G7 nations of “smearing and attacking” China, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserting that these actions hinder international peace and regional stability. China summoned Japan’s ambassador to protest the “hype around China-related issues” and warned the UK to stop its “slander” to avoid damaging bilateral relations.

June 12, 2024 – The European Commission announces provisional import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles

On June 12, the European Commission announced provisional import tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) from China, ranging from 27.4 percent to 48.1 percent, following an anti-subsidy investigation. This decision comes shortly after the United States imposed their own tariffs on Chinese EVs, which have risen to an unprecedented 102.5 percent.

In response, the Chinese government has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into pork imports from the EU. While the Chinese Ministry of Commerce did not directly link this investigation to the EV tariffs, it is widely perceived as a retaliatory move. The investigation encompasses various pork products, including fresh and frozen meat, intestines, and other internal organs, and is expected to last one year with a possible six-month extension.

This strategic decision is deemed to mainly target European agriculture rather than German automakers, possibly to leverage in trade negotiations. Despite speculation that China might impose a 25 percent duty on large-engine gasoline-powered vehicles, which would significantly impact brands like Mercedes and BMW, the government has refrained from this action, likely considering the significant presence of these automakers in China and their opposition to the EU tariffs.

Meanwhile, the European Commission’s trade measures may extend beyond EVs to other key components of Europe’s energy transition. Recently, an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese solar panel manufacturers was closed after the companies withdrew from a public project in Romania. Additionally, an ongoing investigation into Chinese wind turbine suppliers is being conducted under the new Foreign Subsidies Regulation. 

June 6 to June 9, 2024 – The European Parliament elections reveal a shift to the right

The 2024 EU elections, held between June 6 and June 9, 2024, have significantly reshaped the political landscape within the EU, prompting a re-evaluation of power dynamics among member states and within the European Parliament. Despite varying interpretations of the results, two primary perspectives have emerged: a notable surge in far-right support and a resilient centrist presence, particularly from mid-sized and smaller countries.

In Germany and France, the far-right experienced significant gains, with dramatic increases in voter support. However, centrist parties have maintained a stronghold at the EU level, largely due to voters from countries like Poland, Spain, and Romania. This has enabled a pro-European, centrist majority to form, likely securing Ursula von der Leyen another term as Commission president. This majority will not be heavily influenced by the governing parties of France and Germany, thereby diminishing the influence of leaders like Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz within the European Parliament.

Macron’s party secured only 13 of the 79 seats in the Renew Europe group, while Scholz’s Social Democrats won just 14 seats in the 135-member S&D group. In contrast, other leaders have emerged stronger, such as Donald Tusk of Poland’s Civic Coalition, which won 21 seats, and Romania’s coalition parties, which secured 19 seats. These developments suggest that countries previously considered on the periphery will now be central to the new von der Leyen majority, impacting decisions on the Commission president, commissioners, regulations, and the general direction of the EU.

As EU leaders convene at various international summits, such as the G7 meeting in Italy and the upcoming Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland, discussions about top EU jobs are taking place alongside broader international issues. The emerging consensus points toward von der Leyen continuing as Commission president, Roberta Metsola staying on as European Parliament president, and António Costa as a potential European Council president. Estonia’s Kaja Kallas is also a contender for the EU foreign policy chief position.

This timeline was first published on June 21, 2024, and will show rolling updates.

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