Other BriefingsDeepening Regional Integration: The GBA in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan
The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) will play a central role in China’s national development strategy over the next five years. China’s 15th five-year plan sets out priorities for the GBA spanning cross-boundary regulatory alignment, infrastructure investment, and financial market integration. The vision for the GBA in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan signals a more accessible regional economy and new opportunities for foreign businesses across finance, technology, and professional services.
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (15th FYP), the country’s economic blueprint for the period from 2026 to 2030, highlights the important role of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in the country’s growth trajectory over the next five years.
Covering nine major cities in Guangdong Province, including the economic powerhouses of Shenzhen and Guangzhou, along with the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) and the Macao SAR), the GBA is one of China’s core drivers of economic growth, industrial development, and sci-tech innovation, as well as a key platform for integrating the economies of the two SARs with the mainland.
The 15th FYP outlines policy priorities for further cross-boundary integration, highlighting a variety of mechanisms from enhancing regulatory interoperability to deepening trade and business ties to accelerating the construction of further transport and logistics links.
For foreign businesses and investors, the plan signals both a more integrated and accessible GBA economy and a shifting landscape of opportunities, from financial services and technology to logistics and professional services.
The GBA’s strategic role in the 15th FYP
The 15th FYP sets an explicit mandate for the GBA to serve as one of China’s key regional growth drivers, alongside the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) and the Yangtze River Delta city clusters.
The 15th FYP’s blueprint for the development of the GBA is largely a continuation of existing policy priorities. These include deepening the integration of Hong Kong and Macao into the mainland’s economy, further developing the region’s existing economic strengths, and utilizing the region as a testbed for pilot programs and regulations, particularly in areas such as technology, finance, education, and attracting high-skilled talent. Through Hong Kong and Macao, the GBA also plays a key role in China’s further opening up and deepening of trade and investment ties with the wider world.
The plan calls for “accelerating the construction of a world-class bay area” by improving cross-boundary implementation of laws and administrative rules. One of the challenges of further integrating the three distinct economies, unlike China’s other city clusters, is the fact that the three regions have distinct regulations and economic structures due to the high degree of autonomy afforded to Hong Kong and Macao. This creates challenges for businesses and people seeking to operate across boundaries, as different regulations, from tax to industry regulations, add complexity to daily life and operations.
A key requirement for strengthening the cross-boundary flows of commerce, talent, and capital is therefore to ensure some level of interoperability of policies and regulations, as well as incentives to encourage business cooperation and the movement of talent. The 15th FYP addresses this need, calling for better alignment of rules and mechanisms in areas such as tech innovation, economic development, and public services across Hong Kong, Macao, and the Mainland.
It also calls for improving policies and measures to facilitate the development and life of Hong Kong and Macao residents in the Chinese Mainland.
The GBA already provides a range of programs aimed at facilitating the movement of talent between Hong Kong, Macao, and the Chinese mainland, such as the individual income (IIT) subsidy scheme for high-end talent. This program provides a financial rebate on the portion of IIT paid that exceeds 15 percent of taxable income, thus aligning IIT rates on the Chinese mainland more closely with those in Hong Kong and Macao.
How the 15th FYP will shape the GBA’s development
The 15th FYP highlights several concrete areas of development for the GBA, in particular in areas such as further integrating the infrastructure, industries, talent, and
The plan outlines key infrastructure projects that will be advanced over the 15th FYP, notably the Guangzhou-Zhuhai-Macao high-speed railway, the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Railway, and the Macau International Airport Hengqin Forward Cargo Terminal.
The Guangzhou-Zhuhai-Macao high-speed railway, a 190-kilometer extension of the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao corridor, will start at Guangzhou North Station and pass through Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, Guangzhou’s Huangpu and Nansha districts, Zhongshan, and Hezhou in Zhuhai, before ending at the Hengqin Port on the border between Zhuhai and Macao, where it will connect with Macao’s Light Rail Transit.
Construction on the Hezhou to Zhuhai section will commence this year, according to Guangdong’s provincial 2026 government work report.
The plan also calls for advancing the preliminary work for the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Rail Link, a rail project that will run across Shenzhen Bay linking Hung Shui Kiu in Hong Kong’s Northern Territories to Shenzhen’s Qianhai district. According to Shenzhen’s entry-exit port, Hong Kong and Shenzhen have agreed to establish a “co-location checkpoint” on the Shenzhen side, where passengers would be able to complete all immigration and customs clearance procedures upon arrival in Shenzhen in a single stop, without needing to clear customs separately in both Hong Kong and Shenzhen.
When completed, this rail link will provide another, more direct route from Hong Kong’s northern territories – and the planned Northern Metropolis – to the Western part of Shenzhen for easier access to Guangzhou and beyond.
The planned construction of the Macau International Airport Hengqin Forward Cargo Terminal will also deepen the integration of transport and logistics between Macao and Zhuhai by relocating the cargo terminal functions of the Macao International Airport to Hengqin in Zhuhai, creating a new regional logistics hub. With the groundbreaking ceremony taking place in October 2025, the project is scheduled for completion by the end of 2026 and operation in the first half of 2027. The terminal is expected to handle 300,000 metric tons of air cargo annually, according to Macao’s central government liaison office.
In another move to deepen integration between Macao and Hengqin, the plan calls for promoting the construction of the Macao-Hengqin International Education (University) City, and supporting Macao universities to expand their campuses to Hengqin.
The 15th FYP additionally calls for building “high-quality major cooperation platforms such as Qianhai, Nansha, and the Hetao areas”. This refers to the Qianhai Cooperation Zone in Shenzhen, Nansha New Area development zone in Guangzhou, and the Hetao Shenzhen-Hong Kong Science and Technology Innovation Co-operation Zone. These are development zones in the mainland portion of the GBA and the sites for key pilot policies, such as expanded market access, preferential tax policies, and industry regulations that are trialed before being considered for broader rollout.
Financial market integration
The GBA serves as an important base for further integration of the mainland and offshore financial markets. The most explicit directive in the plan regarding integration is the commitment to “orderly promote the interconnection with mainland financial markets”, as part of a broader effort to support Hong Kong and Macao in better integrating into and serving the country’s overall development.
The plan highlights Hong Kong’s central position in the national financial strategy, supporting it to consolidate and enhance its status as an international financial center. It calls on strengthening its position as a global offshore Renminbi business hub and enhancing its functions as an international asset and wealth management center and an international risk management center, while also building a “commodity trading ecosystem” and a high-value-added supply chain service center.
For Macau, the 15th FYP supports economic diversification by specifically targeting the competitiveness of “specialized finance”. This is intended to work alongside other industries like traditional Chinese medicine, high technology, and convention and exhibition services to create a more resilient economy.
Hong Kong’s deepening role in China’s development
In addition to the role outlined for Hong Kong in the 15th Five-Year Plan, the Hong Kong government has committed to formulating its own five-year plan for the first time, to be released within 2026, according to Chief Executive John Lee. Serving as a collective action framework for the SAR, the plan will outline Hong Kong’s development vision, core objectives, and major initiatives over the next five years, with the aim of driving deeper integration into and contribution to national development.
The decision to launch its own five-year plan suggests a more proactive effort to align its medium-term development strategy with Beijing’s policy priorities. This means Hong Kong will increasingly focus on the issues that are important to Beijing, including technological advancement and self-sufficiency, in particular in areas such as AI and semiconductors, industrial upgrading, boosting domestic consumption, and finance.
As such, the plan is expected to focus on several areas that mirror the national document’s priorities. According to Lee, in finance, Hong Kong aims to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi, strengthen its function as a global offshore Renminbi hub, and enhance the mutual market access regime that underpins its status as an international financial center. In innovation and technology (I&T), Hong Kong intends to leverage its strong basic research capabilities and position within the national industrial ecosystem to accelerate collaboration between industry, academia, and research, contributing to China’s technological self-reliance in areas such as AI and semiconductors, including through integration into national initiatives such as the “AI+ Initiative” to upgrade its traditional industries and strengthen its emerging productive forces.
Beyond this, Hong Kong’s unique position as an autonomous trade and logistics hub under “One Country, Two Systems” positions it to serve as a connecting platform both for companies seeking to expand globally and for channeling foreign investment into China, while its universities and international environment give it a natural role in attracting and nurturing high-end talent.
The role of Hong Kong’s Northern Metropolis in GBA integration
The 15th FYP gives an explicit mandate for the development of Hong Kong’s Northern Metropolis, a planned urban expansion covering the Yuen Long and North District of the New Territories, an area of around 30,000 hectares. When fully developed, the Northern Metropolis is expected to accommodate around 2.5 million residents and provide approximately 650,000 jobs, making it one of the most significant land development undertakings in Hong Kong’s history.
A key part of the Northern Metropolis vision is for it to serve as a bridge to the mainland, and in particular as a technology development partner to Shenzhen’s major business and innovation districts directly across the border. The development is central to Hong Kong’s ambition to establish itself as an international I&T center, underpinning a new industrial model built around a “South-North dual engine” in which the traditional financial hub in the south is complemented by a new I&T cluster in the north. Its proximity to Shenzhen’s metropolitan core and technology industry base also positions it as a natural platform for deeper GBA cooperation.
The Northern Metropolis consists of four planned new development areas (NDA), two of which are of particular significance to its integration into the wider GBA.
The first is the Hung Shui Kiu/Ha Tsuen modern services and logistics hub. Located on the western edge of the Northern Metropolis near the Shenzhen Bay Port, the Hung Shui Kiu/Ha Tsuen NDA is designed to become a major modern services and logistics hub. Its geographical proximity to Qianhai gives it a natural role as a cross-boundary commercial center, a relationship that will be further strengthened by the planned Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Rail Link.
The NDA will provide at least 2 million square meters of commercial floor area, with properties adjoining the planned Hung Shui Kiu Station expected to be completed from 2030. Under Hong Kong’s “East in, East out; West in, West out” cross-boundary freight strategy, the NDA has also reserved around 70 hectares of industrial land for logistics, modern manufacturing, and other industrial uses, positioning it as a key node in the GBA’s freight and supply chain network. Phase 1 development works commenced in 2020, with Phase 2 commencing in mid-2024.
The second key area is the San Tin Technopole I&T hub. Designed specifically for cross-boundary integration with the GBA, this hub is located near Shenzhen’s I&T zones in the Huanggang and Futian districts. The Technopole, together with the Hong Kong-Shenzhen I&T Park (HSITP) at the Lok Ma Chau Loop, covers 600 hectares, half of which is dedicated to I&T. The hub is intended to create direct synergies with Shenzhen’s I&T ecosystem, effectively functioning as the Hong Kong half of a single, cross-boundary innovation cluster. The 300 hectares of designated I&T land are directly comparable in scale to Shenzhen’s own 300-hectare I&T zone on the other side of the Shenzhen River, with Hong Kong contributing its strengths in basic research, international capital, and professional services, and Shenzhen its manufacturing base, technology supply chains, and deep pool of I&T talent and companies.
Tenants from life and health technology, microelectronics, new energy, and AI are already beginning to move into the first completed buildings of the HSITP, according to the Hong Kong government. Together with the Northern Metropolis’s broader “South-North dual engine” model, San Tin Technopole represents Hong Kong’s clearest attempt to expand its position from that of a standalone financial center to an integrated node within the GBA’s vast innovation economy.
What the 15th FYP means for foreign businesses in the GBA
The 15th FYP points to further institutional integration in the GBA, rather than simply expansion. The plan’s emphasis on regulatory interoperability and legal guarantees, as well as Hong Kong’s more direct actions to align with the nationwide plan, signals a more integrated and synergistic cross-boundary economy. For foreign businesses, this may mean more frictionless operations across three jurisdictions in the future, as well as both new opportunities and rising competition in priority industries.
Notably, Hong Kong is increasingly being positioned as more than a financial hub, as evidenced by the significant push to develop I&T, leveraging its proximity to Shenzhen. This plays into China’s broader ambitions to achieve technological self-sufficiency – a core priority in the 15thFYP. Foreign businesses should factor in that Hong Kong’s policy priorities are shifting, and by extension, its incentive structures, talent pool, and infrastructure investment.
The ambitious expansions to infrastructure and industrial clusters also present a host of opportunities for foreign companies and investors, in particular in sectors such as technology R&D, professional services, finance, and trade and logistics. Moreover, the 15th FYP explicitly supports Hong Kong’s role as a platform for outbound investment, providing law firms, accountancies, investment banks, and consultancies opportunities to capture demand from mainland companies navigating international markets, regulations, and capital structures for the first time.
Meanwhile, with the San Tin Technopole and the HSITP explicitly designed to cluster companies in sectors such as life sciences, microelectronics, new energy, and AI, foreign technology companies and research institutions may see growing opportunities to co-locate with both Hong Kong’s academic research base and Shenzhen’s manufacturing and supply chain ecosystem, potentially spurring innovation and shortening the path from research to commercialization.
The build-out of logistics and supply chain infrastructure, such as in the construction of the Macao cargo terminal and the broader transport infrastructure investment, may also further empower export-oriented industries, providing expanded opportunities for both foreign manufacturers in the GBA region and logistics operators.
Finally, for foreign financial institutions, the GBA remains one of the most compelling growth regions in Asia. The 15th FYP’s push for RMB internationalization and deeper interconnection between mainland and offshore markets points to sustained demand for cross-boundary financial products and services, with Hong Kong’s unique position at the intersection of the two systems making it an increasingly important base for institutions seeking to navigate that two-way flow.
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