China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: What We Know So Far

2025 is a pivotal year in China’s policy cycle, marking the close of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the lead-up to the 15th, which will chart the country’s course from 2026 to 2030. President Xi Jinping is already steering discussions with senior officials on key priorities, while state media mobilize public input ahead of the CPC Central Committee’s expected approval this fall. We discuss what the policy priorities could be for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan.

2025 is a pivotal year in China’s policy landscape, marking the final year of the 14th Five–Year Plan and setting the stage for the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee to put forward proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan in the fall.

China’s political leadership is currently laying the groundwork for the release of this pivotal document, which will shape the country’s social and economic development over the next five years. President Xi Jinping has held meetings with senior officials to discuss key priorities for the new plan, while state media have launched a national campaign to gather public input and feedback.

The 15th Five-Year Plan, which will cover the period from 2026 to 2030, is expected to focus on improving economic resilience, boosting China’s technology and innovation capabilities, and will be approved during a CPC Central Committee plenum expected to take place in the fall.

What are China’s Five-Year Plans?

China’s five-year plans are the country’s most authoritative policy blueprints, outlining strategic goals for economic and social development over five-year periods. Originating with the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, these plans set national priorities, particularly in areas such as economic growth, industrial development, education, and social development, and serve as binding guidelines for all local, provincial and regional governments.

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Each new five-year plan is shaped by the country’s most pressing challenges, taking into account prevailing economic conditions, shifts in industry and technology, national security concerns, foreign trade and diplomacy, and evolving demographic and social trends.

The 14th Five-Year Plan was developed against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw China’s GDP decline for the first and only time in over four decades, and a protracted trade war with the US. A major focus of the plan was therefore ways to bolster supply chain resilience, boost domestic consumption, and shore up domestic technological and innovation capabilities.

Other priorities set forth in the plan included tackling carbon emissions and promoting green development, increasing digitalization and developing digital technologies, upgrading traditional industries, rural revitalization, and accelerating economic development in China’s northern and western regions, among others.

What will be in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan?

As the 15th Five-Year Plan is still in the early stages of research and planning, we don’t know yet what will be in the final document. However, the government has provided some indicators of what the general policy direction will be through reporting on meetings between government officials.

Five years on from the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China finds itself under very different conditions, while facing some familiar and persistent headwinds. While the country has largely recovered from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the memory of some of the worst outcomes of the pandemic, such as major economic and social disruption, supply chain crises, and strain on domestic industries, will continue to shape economic policy for many years to come. Additionally, with Trump back in the White House, China is once again in a tariff stand-off with its largest single trading partner and chief economic rival, with the returning president reigniting the trade war after taking office.

The 15th Five-Year Plan will be drafted with these issues front of mind. Priorities are therefore likely to be centered around improving economic resilience, which will include diversifying trade partners and reducing reliance on imports for critical materials, boosting domestic consumption, and improving domestic capabilities in key technologies.

During a symposium in April 2025 discussing the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Xi Jinping emphasized that, when planning economic and social development for this period, “it is essential to proactively assess how changes in the international landscape affect China and to adapt accordingly by adjusting and optimizing the country’s economic structure”. He highlighted several key areas of focus, including ensuring economic stability by stabilizing employment, supporting enterprises, and continuing the high-level opening up of China’s economy.

Bolstering technological innovation and scientific research

In his speech at the April symposium, Xi placed significant emphasis on scientific and technological development. He specifically called for new quality productive forces to play a more prominent role in the country’s economic upgrading and called for promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, developing emerging industries, and accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system.

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He also highlighted the need for building a modern industrial system and achieving breakthroughs in core and cutting-edge technologies while strengthening basic research and improving original innovation capabilities.

Meanwhile, a public input campaign launched by Chinese state media in March 2025, which solicits feedback from citizens and industry stakeholders, included “AI Plus” as a key topic for discussion. The AI Plus initiative, first introduced in the 2024 Government Work Report, aims to integrate AI across a wide range of industries to enhance automation, boost productivity, reduce operational costs, and accelerate the digital transformation of China’s economy. Realizing this vision will require significant investment in and development of multiple sectors, including technology R&D, expansion of digital infrastructure such as data centers and high-speed networks, and the advancement and mass production of hardware components such as semiconductor chips and AI-optimized devices.

The 15th Five-Year Plan is anticipated to dedicate significant space to the development of the AI Plus initiative and the supporting industries and sectors, with policies promoting investment, fiscal support, talent development, and public-private collaboration, among others.

Expanding domestic demand

Expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption have been a considerable headache for the government for many years, but in many ways, it is also key to ensuring the country’s future economic stability. The need for China’s population to be able to buy a larger share of its fruits of production is becoming more and more pronounced, both as key overseas export markets, in particular the US and Europe, seek to reduce reliance on China, and as China’s own production capabilities change through rising labor costs and a shrinking working age population.

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The 2025 Government Work Report released during the Two Sessions called for making domestic demand the primary driver of economic growth by addressing consumption weaknesses and integrating consumption with investment.

As such, a variety of policies and measures to boost domestic consumption and demand have been released over the years, including consumption subsidies, trade-in schemes, expansion of key services, and the development of new consumption in areas such as digital, green, and smart products and services.

Despite this, consumption has been stubbornly low, as evidenced by chronically low inflation and imports.

The 15th Five-Year Plan is likely to double down on measures to boost domestic demand. Specific measures are likely to include subsidies for the purchase of major goods, such as furniture, white goods, and vehicles, as well as means to increase living standards and disposable income, in particular for rural populations and the elderly, who currently have less spending power but considerable potential as a consumer base. In the same vein, we may also see efforts to improve income distribution and to boost wages for middle and low-income groups.

Setting key carbon emissions targets and realigning the decarbonization strategy

The 14th Five-Year Plan set a range of decarbonization targets, including targets for energy consumption reductions that align with China’s overarching “dual carbon” goals – reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.

Due to setbacks arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a series of energy crunches and weather catastrophes in the following years, China has fallen behind one of its key carbon targets for the 14th Five-Year Plan period – reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP. In the 2025 Government Work Report, China targeted a decrease in the annual energy consumption per unit of GDP of about 3 percent for 2025, slightly below the 2.5 percent decrease targeted for 2024.  However, according to analysis from Carbon Brief, this means China will miss its carbon intensity target – decreasing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5 percent from 2020 levels by 2025.

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This means that this target will be recalibrated for the 15th Five-Year Plan period, with considerations for China’s current capabilities and the possibility of further external shocks.

At the same time, China is shifting one of its core decarbonization strategies from focusing on the reduction of total energy consumption to the reduction of total carbon emissions. Under this change, China will move away from the “dual energy consumption control” mechanism, in which the country aims to control total energy consumption and energy intensity, to a “dual control of carbon emissions” mechanism, which focuses on controlling total carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity.

In August 2024, the State Council released the official plan for this transition, which will take place over the 15th Five-Year plan period. This will require establishing a variety of monitoring and assessment mechanisms, such as a carbon evaluation and assessment system, carbon emission accounting systems, a product carbon footprint management system, and product carbon labeling certification system, among others.

The 15th Five-Year Plan will therefore likely provide more details and policies for achieving this transition to the new control mechanism.

Finally, the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan will also mark the deadline for China’s first major carbon emissions target – reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030. Policymakers will therefore be setting key targets for carbon emissions, renewable energy, and energy consumption in order to prepare industries for carbon peaking and eventual carbon reduction from 2030.

Rural revitalization

Rural revitalization is another policy that is expected to feature prominently in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. First introduced as a key national agenda item in 2017, this long-standing policy priority seeks to balance development disparities within the country by raising income levels, improve living standards, and unleashing the economic potential of China’s rural areas.

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Over the years, rural revitalization has evolved from targeted poverty alleviation into a more ambitious framework aimed at fostering long-term prosperity and resilience. It has become essential not only for improving rural livelihoods but also for ensuring national food security, advancing the green transition, and expanding domestic consumption, particularly at a time when external demand is softening and urban growth is maturing. As the population ages and migratory patterns shift, the stability and modernization of rural areas are increasingly viewed as critical to China’s social cohesion and future development.

The 15th Five-Year Plan is likely to institutionalize recent efforts set out in the 2024–2027 Rural Comprehensive Revitalization Plan released in January 2025. These include modernizing agriculture through technological innovation, supporting the integration of farming with processing and services, expanding infrastructure, promoting rural to urban migration, and improving access to education, healthcare, and public services for rural residents and migrant workers. Food security will also be a major priority, supported by more efficient land use, gene-edited crop varieties, and targeted subsidies.

When will we see China’s 15th Five-Year Plan?

The 15th Five-Year Plan is currently in the drafting stage, with recommendations and input being gathered from experts, industry associations, various government departments, and members of the public.

We are likely to see formal recommendations for what will be included in the final document following the plenum that will be held in the fall of 2025. When drafting the 14th Five-Year Plan, the CPC Central Committee released an official proposal for the drafting of the plan in November 2020, a few months before the final document was adopted and released in March 2021.

The final version of the 15th Five-Year Plan is also expected to be released during the Two Sessions held in March 2026. The plan will then officially be adopted and implemented.

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