US-China Relations in the Trump 2.0 Era: A Timeline
This timeline was created on January 21, 2025, and was last updated on February 5, 2025.
On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. His return to the White House signals a shift in US-China relations. Building on the aggressive stance of his first term, Trump 2.0 is expected to challenge China with a more transactional and unpredictable approach. The economic, security, and diplomatic consequences of his policies will not only reshape US-China ties but also influence the broader global geopolitical landscape.
Trump is expected to intensify the trade confrontations that defined his first administration, potentially escalating tariffs and sanctioning Chinese companies in an effort to achieve greater economic self-sufficiency. However, his focus on America’s immediate interests may leave little room for long-term strategic alliances, making his policy more difficult to predict. As Trump looks to navigate his second term amid a tumultuous political backdrop, China will need to adapt quickly to a US president who is more focused on leveraging short-term victories than on pursuing traditional diplomatic strategies.
This timeline will track the key developments in US-China relations under Trump 2.0, examining the potential consequences for China’s economy and other key aspects, while offering insights into the strategies that both Washington and Beijing will adopt in the face of a renewed geopolitical rivalry.
Previously, China Briefing tracked and documented the US-China trade war in the Trump era and the evolution of US-China relations in the Biden Era.
US-China relations in the Trump 2.0 era
February 4, 2024 – US Postal Service suspends all parcels arriving from Mainland China and Hong Kong
In a notice posted to its website on Tuesday, the USPS announced that it will temporarily suspend international packages from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong “until further notice”, effective the same day. Letters and “flats” (large envelopes, newsletters, and magazines) are unaffected.
On February 1, Trump signed an Executive Order which, among other actions, halted the de minimis exemption allowing parcels below US$800 in value to bypass customs inspections and duties when entering the US. The stated reason for halting the exemption is to prevent the import of fentanyl and chemical precursors, which arrive in the US via these types of small packages.
The halting of packages from China will severely affect online retailers such as Shein, Temu, and Amazon, as well as countless smaller retail businesses, whose business models are substantially based on exploiting this loophole. It will also have an immediate impact on American consumers, as millions of parcels that have already been shipped will be stuck in customs for an indeterminate amount of time. An analyst told Reuters that four million de minimis packages arrived in the US per day in 2024.
February 4, 2024 – China imposes tariffs on US imports, implements export controls on rare earths in retaliation to Trump’s tariff hike
Shortly after the Trump administration’s 10 percent additional tariff on Chinese imports took effect, China’s Customs Tariff Commission announced a series of retaliatory tariffs on goods originating from the United States.
These are:
- A 15 percent tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, and
- A 10 percent tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement cars, and pickup trucks.
Additionally, corresponding tariffs will be imposed based on current applicable tariff rates. Existing bonded and tax reduction and exemption policies will remain unchanged, and the additional tariffs will not be reduced or exempted. These tariffs are set to take effect on February 10.
In addition to the tariff increase, China’s Ministry of Commerce and Customs Administration announced export controls on 25 rare earth metal items, citing the need to “safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation.”
The items subject to export controls include various derivations of tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, and molybdenum, critical materials for industries such as electronics, aerospace, and renewable energy.
While the announcement did not explicitly link the export controls to US tariffs, China’s role as one of the largest producers of rare earth metals makes these products a significant bargaining chip in the context of a potential trade war. In an executive order signed on his first day in office, Trump called for “Restoring America’s Mineral Dominance,” which included expanding access to land for mining in the US. He has also pursued efforts to expand access to critical minerals overseas, including threatening to annex Greenland and recently demanding Ukraine provide access to rare earths in exchange for military aid.
Separately, the Trump administration imposed 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico but postponed their implementation by 30 days in both cases following negotiations. However, no such deal has been reached between China and the United States. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump is expected to speak with President Xi Jinping “in the next couple of days,” according to Reuters.
February 4, 2024 – China announces antitrust probe into Google, adds two US companies to Unreliable Entities List
On Tuesday, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced that it has launched an investigation into Google for suspected violations of China’s Anti-Monopoly Law. The statement, published on SAMR’s website, did not provide specific details of the alleged violations. This news was released just one minute after the US’s 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports took effect.
While Google’s search engine has not operated in China since 2011 and its Gmail service ended in 2014, some Google services and products, such as the Google Chrome browser, are still available in the country.
At the same time as the Google antitrust probe announcement, China’s Ministry of Commerce declared that it is adding two major US companies to its Unreliable Entities List: biotech giant Illumina, Inc. and fashion conglomerate PVH Group, the parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger.
According to the Ministry, the two companies “violated normal market trading principles, interrupted normal transactions with Chinese companies, adopted discriminatory measures against Chinese companies, and seriously damaged the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies.”
Placement on the Unreliable Entities List subjects these companies to a range of potential penalties, including import and export restrictions, investment limitations, restrictions or prohibitions on company personnel entering China, revocation of work, stay, or residence permits for foreign staff, and fines.
Illumina has expanded its presence in China in recent years, establishing its first manufacturing site in Shanghai in 2022. Meanwhile, PVH Group has seen strong growth in the Chinese market, citing a 20 percent year-on-year increase in revenue in RMB terms in its 2023 Year in Review.
February 1, 2025 – Trump signs executive order slapping 10% tariff on Chinese imports
President Trump signed an executive order (EO) imposing an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods entering the country, ostensibly to curb the import of fentanyl and other illicit substances. Canada and Mexico were separately hit with 25 percent additional tariffs under the same rationale. The additional tariffs will be levied “until the [illicit drug] crisis is alleviated”, according to a White House Fact Sheet.
The Fact Sheet also accused China of failing “to take the actions necessary to stem the flow of precursor chemicals to known criminal cartels and shut down money laundering by transnational criminal organizations”.
Under the Biden administration, the US and China increased collaboration to tackle the export of fentanyl and precursor chemicals from China to the US, launching the US-China Counternarcotics Working Group in January 2024. The initiative was a key part of the efforts to resume US-China cooperation on a variety of issues following years of diplomatic gridlock, and at the time was viewed as an easy win for the Biden administration. In April 2024, then-US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of the Joint Treasury-People’s Bank of China Cooperation and Exchange on Anti-Money Laundering. It is unclear whether these efforts will continue under Trump.
In addition to the tariffs, the EOs also announced a halt to the De Minimis exemption, which exempts parcels valued below US$800 from customs inspections and tariffs. The Trump administration has blamed small packages that fall under this threshold for the illegal import of fentanyl and precursor chemicals.
The suspension of the De Minimis exemption could significantly impact Chinese e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu, which have established vast customer bases in the US. Their business models heavily rely on exploiting this loophole by shipping low-value parcels directly from manufacturers in China to American consumers.
The tariffs will go into effect at 00:01 Eastern Time (13:01 China Standard Time) on Tuesday, February 4.
In response to the tariffs, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China would “take necessary countermeasures to defend its legitimate rights and interests” and that the move violated WTO rules. China’s Ministry of Commerce also stated that it would file a lawsuit with the WTO and threatened to countermeasures to “safeguard its own rights and interests”.
January 22, 2025 – Trump threatens 10% tariff on China over Fentanyl from Feb 1
On January 22, 2025, during a White House event, President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports as soon as February 1, citing concerns over fentanyl shipments. He accused China of sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada, which he claimed was then trafficked into the United States. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated during a routine press briefing that China firmly opposes trade wars and tariff measures, emphasizing that “there are no winners in trade wars, and China will resolutely safeguard its national interests.”
January 20, 2025 – Trump’s second term begins with a focus on US-China trade relations
President Donald Trump marked the start of his second term with a broad trade policy directive, prioritizing a methodical review of the United States trade relationships, including a sharp focus on China. While no immediate tariffs were announced, the administration signaled its intention to evaluate Beijing’s adherence to the 2020 trade agreement and address trade imbalances.
Key developments include:
- Trade memo announcement: The memo, issued shortly after Trump’s inauguration, directs federal agencies to scrutinize trade deficits and unfair practices by major trading partners, with China being a key focus.
- 2020 trade deal under review: Trump’s directive includes assessing China’s compliance with the 2020 deal, which required Beijing to increase purchases of US goods by US$200 billion annually—a commitment largely unmet due to the pandemic.
- Avoiding immediate tariffs: Contrary to campaign rhetoric promising steep tariffs on Chinese imports, the administration appears to be taking a more strategic approach. Analysts suggest this could calm financial markets in the short term.
- Universal tariff expected: Trade experts believe Trump remains committed to imposing a global tariff as part of his economic agenda. The administration is expected to invoke statutes like Section 232 or Section 301 for future trade actions. Trump’s measured approach to tariffs suggests a possible window for negotiations, but the administration’s broader goals—such as pushing China to fulfill its trade commitments—may lead to renewed tensions. The directive reinforces the administration’s intent to hold China accountable for practices perceived as unfair, maintaining pressure in line with Trump’s first-term trade strategy.
This measured start to Trump’s second term reflects his administration’s continued focus on reshaping US-China trade ties, signaling challenges ahead for the bilateral relationship.
January 20, 2025 – Trump signs executive action to delay TikTok ban for 75 days
On January 20, 2025, former President Donald Trump signed an executive order to delay the enforcement of a TikTok ban for an additional 75 days.
Under the terms of the executive order, the U.S. Department of Justice will refrain from enforcing the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which had been passed with broad bipartisan support in Congress and signed into law by former President Joe Biden in April 2024. The Act required TikTok to either sell its U.S. operations to an American or allied buyer or face a ban, effective January 19, 2025.
Prior to his inauguration, Trump had pledged on social media to take executive action to prevent the law from taking effect. Following this announcement, TikTok restored access for existing users after the app had been offline for more than 12 hours from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon.
It remains unclear whether TikTok will be able to continue operating in the U.S. after the 75-day delay. However, the extension provides TikTok’s China-based parent, ByteDance, with additional time to secure a potential buyer for the platform at least.
January 20, 2025 – Trump comments on reclaiming Panama Canal, references manifest destiny for space exploration
On January 20, 2025, newly inaugurated President Donald Trump stated that the United States would take back control of the Panama Canal. During his inauguration speech, Trump reiterated his accusation that Panama had broken promises made during the 1999 transfer of the canal and had allegedly allowed China to gain influence over its operation. He remarked, “We didn’t give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.” Although he did not specify when or how the US would pursue this goal, he previously suggested that military action could be a possibility, a comment that has drawn attention from both supporters and critics.
Trump’s statement on the Panama Canal was part of a wider discussion of his views on US territorial expansion. He invoked the concept of “Manifest Destiny,” historically associated with 19th-century US territorial expansion, and linked it to future goals for space exploration, specifically stating that the US would eventually aim to land astronauts on Mars. Some critics have expressed concerns that such rhetoric might encourage other countries, like Russia and China, to pursue more assertive actions in their respective geopolitical situations. Others have speculated that Trump’s statements may be a strategic move to set a strong negotiating position.
In his speech, Trump also reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America and expressed dissatisfaction with the transfer of the Panama Canal, calling it a “foolish gift.” His administration’s criticisms are based on claims of unfair treatment, particularly regarding shipping costs, though Panama has denied any unfair practices and emphasized that all vessels are treated equally, including those from China. While China does not control the canal itself, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings manages two ports near the canal’s Caribbean and Pacific entrances, which has been a point of contention in US-China relations.
The Panama Canal is a crucial waterway for both global trade and the US, playing a key role in the transportation of goods from Asia and in the export of US energy resources. Following Trump’s remarks, Panama’s maritime authority announced an audit of the Panama Ports Company, which manages the ports near the canal.
January 20, 2025 – Elon Musk and China’s Vice President meet ahead of Trump’s second term
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s meeting with China’s Vice President Han Zheng in Washington, D.C., ahead of Donald Trump’s second-term inauguration, has sparked fresh speculation about Musk’s role in shaping US-China relations. According to Chinese state media, Han invited US firms, including Tesla, to deepen investments in China and strengthen economic ties. Musk reportedly reaffirmed Tesla’s commitment to expanding cooperation with China, a vital market that accounts for nearly a quarter of the company’s revenue and hosts its most productive manufacturing hub in Shanghai.
The timing of the meeting, alongside broader discussions with US business leaders, suggests China’s intent to stabilize relations with the US while maintaining economic partnerships. Musk, whose business interests are deeply tied to China, has been described as a potential intermediary between the Trump administration and the Chinese government. This comes amid unresolved tensions over trade and technology, including speculation around Musk’s involvement in a possible TikTok joint venture.
As Trump prepares to recalibrate trade policies, the meeting underscores the critical intersection of business diplomacy and geopolitics in US-China relations.
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