Economic Indicators and Hong Kong's GDP, FDI, and Trade Trends

Hong Kong's economy delivered a robust and accelerating performance throughout 2025, far exceeding earlier expectations. Real GDP grew by 3.5 percent for the full year 2025, accelerating from a 2.6 percent expansion in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of growth and exceeding the government's revised forecast of 3.2 percent. Growth was driven by resilient exports, an improving local consumption market, and robust investment. 

On a quarterly basis, the momentum was consistent and strengthening. The economy grew by 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2025, picking up visibly to 3.8 percent in the third quarter, driven by a continued surge in exports and sustained expansion in domestic demand. Goods exports rose 12.2 percent in Q3, supported by strong demand for electronics and regional trade flows, while services exports rose 6.1 percent, boosted by tourism recovery and cross-boundary financial activity. On the domestic front, private consumption grew 2.1 percent, while overall investment climbed 4.3 percent. 

The momentum carried strongly into 2026. Hong Kong's economy expanded robustly in the first quarter of 2026, with real GDP rising 5.9 percent year-on-year — the strongest performance in nearly five years — driven by the sustained strong performance in external trade and a pick-up in domestic demand, accelerating from the 4.0 percent growth in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, GDP increased by 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Hong Kong government has maintained its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.5 to 3.5 percent, as the potential near-term headwinds in the external environment risk offsetting the stronger-than-expected first-quarter reading. Standard Chartered Bank has lifted its own 2026 forecast to 4.3 percent on the back of the strong Q1 performance, citing a resilient mainland economy, improved stock and housing market sentiment, a stable labour market, and Hong Kong's role as a re-export hub benefiting from the global AI supercycle. 

Strong global demand for advanced electronics and AI-related products is expected to continue supporting goods export performance, while services exports should remain firm, underpinned by sustained vibrancy in inbound tourism, robust cross-boundary financial activity, and steady demand for business services. Key downside risks include ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the uncertain outlook of the Middle East conflict, which could heighten global financial market volatility

Hong Kong's foreign direct investment performance continued to set new records into 2025. InvestHK assisted a total of 560 overseas and Mainland companies in setting up or expanding their businesses in Hong Kong in 2025, representing a 4 percent increase compared to 2024 and reaching a new record high, reflecting the strong appeal of Hong Kong's business environment and growing investor confidence.

Cumulatively, from January 2023 to the first half of 2025, InvestHK assisted over 1,300 overseas and Mainland companies in establishing or expanding in Hong Kong, bringing in foreign direct investment of more than HK$160 billion and creating over 19,000 jobs within the first year of operation or expansion — results that saw InvestHK achieve its 2022 Policy Address performance indicators ahead of schedule. 

The New Capital Investment Entrant Scheme (New CIES), launched in March 2024, has shown substantial growth. By the end of 2025, the scheme had received 2,852 applications since its launch, expected to bring in more than HK$85.5 billion in investments to the city — a more than threefold increase from the over 800 applications recorded at the end of 2024. 

Regarding macro-level FDI data, according to the UNCTAD World Investment Report 2024, Hong Kong received USD 112.6 billion in FDI inflows in 2023, a 2.7 percent increase from 2022, positioning Hong Kong as the fourth-largest FDI recipient globally, with total inbound FDI stock amounting to USD 2.1 trillion. The UNCTAD World Investment Report 2025, released in June 2025 and covering 2024 data, found that global FDI fell by 11 percent in productive capital flows terms in 2024, with the investment landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and intensifying industrial policy competition. Updated Hong Kong-specific FDI stock and flow figures from the WIR 2025 are expected to be incorporated as the full report data becomes more widely available. 

The primary countries contributing to Hong Kong's FDI stock remained China, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, and the United Kingdom. In terms of sectoral distribution, investment and holding, real estate, and professional and business services continued to account for the largest share of Hong Kong's inward direct investment, followed by banking and import/export, wholesale, and retail trades.

Hong Kong trade trends

Hong Kong's merchandise trade performance in 2025 was exceptional, shattering historical records. For 2025 as a whole, the value of merchandise exports rose by 15.4 percent to HK$5,240.3 billion — a historical high. This performance was underpinned by strong global demand for AI-enabled electronic products and diversified market outreach. 

Hong Kong reclaimed its position as a top-tier global trade powerhouse, jumping two spots to become the world's fifth-largest merchandise trading entity in 2025 according to the WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report. The city's total merchandise trade surged by 17.5 percent year-on-year to reach USD 1,585 billion, representing 3 percent of all global commerce — placing Hong Kong directly behind the Chinese Mainland, the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands. 

Exports to the Mainland continued to grow visibly, those to ASEAN economies showed robust growth, exports to the United States showed a decent increase, while those to the European Union declined slightly. 

The strong trade momentum has carried directly into 2026. For the first two months of 2026, the value of total exports of goods increased 29.6 percent from a year earlier and imports grew 34.1 percent. In the first quarter of 2026, merchandise exports grew by 35.8 percent over a year earlier, on the back of strong global demand for AI-related electronic products, with exports to most markets and of most major commodities sustaining strong growth. 

Looking ahead, sustained moderate expansion of the global economy, enhanced economic and trade ties with new markets, and strong worldwide demand for AI-enabled electronic products are expected to continue underpinning Hong Kong's merchandise trade performance. While geopolitical risks — including the uncertain trajectory of the Middle East conflict — represent downside factors, Hong Kong's ongoing efforts to diversify its trading relationships across markets in Asia, the Middle East, and beyond are expected to provide structural resilience for its trade outlook.